As the economic landscape shifts, financial institutions must recalibrate their strategies to balance growth, risk and liquidity. In the face of uncertainty, a “Slow and Grow” approach is emerging as a sustainable way to navigate the market in 2025. In this episode of Leaders in Lending live from the 2025 CBA Live conference, Lynn Sautter Beal is joined by Joseph Mayans, Chief Economist at Experian North America, to explore the key economic drivers—especially the influence of AI and evolving labor market dynamics— shaping the lending industry.
Balancing Hiring and Technological Advancements
Joseph points out that while certain sectors of the economy continue to show momentum, the pace of hiring may remain lower than expected. One factor contributing to this potential slowdown is companies’ increasing adoption of AI-driven solutions. Rather than expanding headcount, many organizations are asking, “How can we use AI to become more efficient and scalable?” This can perpetuate a labor market that struggles to absorb new workers quickly—one reason Joseph suggests that the Federal Reserve might consider more than two rate cuts this year, should job market conditions soften further.
The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma
Managing this economic uncertainty puts the Fed in a challenging spot. They must weigh inflation control against labor market concerns. Joseph notes that if hiring rates don’t pick up, the Fed may opt for more aggressive monetary policy adjustments. While the exact path of rate decisions remains unclear, these moves could significantly impact everything from consumer lending rates to commercial financing options.
Embracing Change: AI in Lending and Beyond
A recurring theme is the importance of adaptability and staying nimble in the face of economic shifts. As AI continues to expand beyond tech companies into more traditional “legacy” businesses, financial institutions can leverage these tools for everything from due diligence to B2B customer support. Joseph highlights how his own teams are adopting AI to become more efficient, reflecting a broader industry-wide move toward automation and data-driven processes.
Staying Humble in a Rapidly Evolving Landscape
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, Joseph’s primary advice for lenders is to stay humble. With major technological disruptions reshaping how companies operate—and potentially influencing both the labor market and consumer behavior—clinging too tightly to past assumptions can lead to missed opportunities or underestimating new risks. Instead, financial institutions should remain open to adjusting forecasts and strategies as conditions change.
The “Slow and Grow” Mindset
Despite uncertainties, there are still areas of opportunity in lending. According to Joseph, improvements in lending standards—especially in sectors like auto loans and small business lending—can offer room for cautious growth. By adopting a measured “Slow and Grow” approach, lenders can mitigate risk while positioning themselves to capture market share when conditions improve.
Moving Forward with Confidence and Adaptability
As 2025 continues to unfold, financial institutions that remain flexible, embrace new technologies like AI, and monitor the Fed’s rate decisions will be better prepared to thrive. Joseph’s insights remind us that an environment of rapid change calls for humility, agility, and a willingness to pivot.
Joseph’s insights provide valuable guidance for navigating the economic landscape and offer actionable advice for lenders to thrive in 2025 and beyond. Stay tuned for more expert advice on Leaders in Lending as we continue to explore the evolving financial landscape.
